Short answerIt depends
Weather has always dominated honey yields, and it still does — a wet fortnight during the main flow can cost the crop. A decades-long climate trend is a different measurement, and it does not explain any particular bad year.
A real long-term trend, a genuinely difficult year, and the natural human move of joining them — in a subject where every beekeeper has direct experience of weather and nobody has direct experience of a thirty-year average.
Nectar secretion is narrower than people expect. A plant needs soil moisture to secrete, the weather has to let bees fly, and the bloom has to last. Drought cuts secretion, rain during bloom keeps colonies in and washes nectar out of open flowers, heat can shorten a bloom to a week, and a frost after bud break destroys it before it opens.
Any one of those removes a crop, and they vary from valley to valley. Honey yields swung wildly long before anybody was measuring a climate trend.
The strongest part is phenological: long-run records in several temperate regions show flowering happening earlier on average and growing seasons lengthening. That is measured over decades and it is not seriously disputed.
What beekeepers most often describe is not a directional loss but rising unpredictability — a season that might be two weeks early or three weeks late. You can adapt to a shift. Adapting to variance is a different problem.
Widely repeated and not supported by current evidence. Listed so the correction is here rather than only the claim.
Individual seasons are dominated by weather and local conditions. Attributing one harvest to climate change requires trend or attribution analysis rather than the observation that the season was bad.
How sources are selected and weighted is set out in the sources and evidence policy.
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